The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: Miami Under Siege from Climate Change
Dear Diary. All coastal cities are bracing against threatening sea level rise this century from climate change, with some more vulnerable than others. One such more vulnerable city is Miami. which we will concentrate on today. That city has had an extra climate headache this year from record heat and humidity as noted by Brian McNoldy:
At the beginning of summer, NWS Miami introduced a lower threshold for heat advisories in Miami-Dade County based on the historical data: a heat index of 105°F+ for 2+ hrs. But 2023 wasn't like anything else in the historical data. Instead of a handful of such days, we had 42. 📈 pic.twitter.com/XSNUUJl9R5— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 16, 2023
A record warm low of 84° has happened 15 times before (including just now on the 12th), but never on two consecutive days. That could change today. Through 6am, the low is still 84° on the 13th. IN OCTOBER. This shouldn't even be legal.— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 13, 2023
Heat index has been 94°+ since Wed 5pm. https://t.co/ru6tyPpZOZ
October 12 in #Miami…— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 12, 2023
– New record high heat index: 105°F (old record was 100°, set in 2020)
– New record high temperature: 93°F (old record was 92°, set in 2020)
– Tied record high dewpoint: 79°F (old record was 79°, set in 2018)
Extreme heat season *should* be winding down in #Miami, so here are some stats through Oct 5:— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) October 5, 2023
– 589 hours with 100°F+ heat index (old record was 458 hrs)
– 178 hours with 105°F+ heat index (old record was 49 hrs)
– 13 hours with 110°F+ heat index (old record was 3 hrs)
Both heat and sea level rise will doom Miami I’m quite sure since we as a species have not put emissions of carbon in check soon enough to sink that city.
Here are more details on recent findings about sea level rise concerning Miami:
For 1 m of sea-level rise, 56% of Miami/Dade residents face indirect pressures to relocate; 19% are trapped (living in chronically flooded areas, unable to move); 19% would be "stable”, and not need to move; 7% would be flooded out but rich enough to move. https://t.co/tYt59jTMHI— Jeff Masters (@DrJeffMasters) October 17, 2023
OCTOBER 16, 2023
Rising seas will tighten vise on Miami, even for people who are not flooded, says study
by Kevin Krajick,
Flooding in the Miami neighborhood known as The Roads, following a May 2020 storm. In many places, rainfall has little room to drain, in large part due to rising sea levels. Credit: Nadia Seeteram
A new study that examines both the physical and socioeconomic effects of sea-level rise on Florida’s Miami-Dade County area finds that in coming decades, four out of five residents may face disruption or displacement, whether they live in flood zones or not.
As inundation spreads, the effects will be felt predominantly by lower-income people as habitable areas shrink and housing prices rise, says the study. Only a small number of affluent residents will be able relocate from low-lying or waterfront properties, while many others without sufficient means may be trapped there, it says.
The study was just published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
“Most studies focus on the direct effects of inundation,” said lead author Nadia Seeteram, a postdoctoral researcher at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Here, we were able to look at flooding on a very granular level and add in other vulnerabilities.”
The study combines building-by-building projections of flooding caused by direct sea-level rise, rainfall or storm surge with fine-grained demographic data to determine how residents will be affected. Along with flood maps, the researchers used U.S. Census Bureau data to chart economic and social factors that would make people more or less vulnerable, including age, race, level of education, income and status of employment, and whether they owned or rented their homes, among other measures. They then divided the population into four categories.
With a one-meter sea-level increase—a middle-of-the-road scenario for the end of this century—56% of the population, primarily on higher ground, could face pressures to relocate, they say. The researchers call these people “displaced.”
The next largest group they labeled the “trapped”—some 19% of the population, living in chronically flooded territory, but without the means to flee to safer nearby ground. About another 19% would be “stable,” according to the researchers—living in areas not prone to flooding and able to remain there. Just 7%—basically the wealthiest, which the researchers labeled as “migrating”—would be directly exposed to flooding in waterfront or low-lying areas, but able to move to safer spots within the metro area.
Current potential flood exposure (blue areas) in downtown Miami (left panel)
Not surprisingly, the study says that if sea levels rise even more than a meter, direct flooding, not economic pressures, will become the dominant force affecting residents. At two meters—fairly high amid the current range of estimates, but not out of the question—about 55% of the population will be directly inundated through a combination of high sea level and, to an increasing extent, rainfall. Under this scenario, 49% of the population would become trapped, and 25% displaced. Only 8% would be classified as stable.
“This is where it gets to be more drastic, more existential,” said Seeteram, who did much of the research during her Ph.D. studies at Florida International University. In either scenario, she said, the results would include potential depopulation of the area and devaluation of flooded properties, as people flee to safer inland regions. This could make it increasingly difficult for authorities to collect taxes to fund adaptations of infrastructure to keep the ocean at bay—a circular process that could send Miami-Dade into an increasingly dire downward spiral, both physical and fiscal.
The study does not look at how many people are currently being affected by flooding, either directly or indirectly. But floods have already become a routine part of life, as monthly peaks in tides percolate up through the sewers during so-called sunny day flooding, and rain with nowhere to drain pools in streets.
The kind of flash flooding in New York City that made big news after a big storm at the end of September would be viewed as just another day in parts of Miami during the May-October wet season, said Seeteram. A still unpublished survey by Seeteram and colleagues indicates that nearly three quarters of Miamians say they have been personally affected by flooding from rainfall in one way or another.
There are also some indications that so-called climate gentrification—the displacement of lower-income people from higher-elevation areas predicted by the study—is already taking place. For instance, in the last few years, the Little Haiti neighborhood, a relatively lofty 10 feet above sea level, has seen a sudden surge in development and property values, worrying the largely Black residents that they may not be able to remain.
Study co-author Katharine Mach of the University of Miami said there is “a great, raging debate” about whether climate gentrification is underway. “I suspect it is already happening,” she said. However, she said, at least for now, other factors may be playing larger roles in rapidly shifting real-estate values, including longtime pro-development policies and what she calls “real-estate tourism,” with speculators snapping up relatively inexpensive properties in a still booming region.
“The question is, what fraction [of rising prices] can you put on climate?” she said. She pointed out that real-estate prices are also going up in low-lying and waterfront areas, but not as fast as in less flood-prone areas—one possible indicator that predicted sea-level rise is playing a role in buyers’ decisions.
Seteeram said the projections in the new study may not necessarily come to pass, at least with lower estimates of sea-level rise; it depends on how the metro area confronts the problems in coming years. If it revamps infrastructure to lessen flooding and takes other measures, that could blunt the effects, she said. “We could see different kinds of housing development, to make the population denser in some areas, or more climate resilient. But then you would have to see what the intersection would be with affordability for a lot of people.”
Provided by Earth Institute at Columbia University
This story is republished courtesy of Earth Institute, Columbia University http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu.
Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Heatwaves and drought are gripping large parts of the Amazon basin, with impacts from #Brazil down to #Paraguay.— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) October 18, 2023
This is fuelling wildfires, harming air quality.
📷 transport of carbon monoxide over S. America.
Via @CopernicusECMWF and @PlatformAdam #StateofClimate pic.twitter.com/u4HOozlCsP
South America heat Wave— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 17, 2023
After their hottest days in history,the PARAGUAY cities of Asuncion (city center) and San Pedro had their hottest nights:
Tmin 30.0C for both.
And what about FRENCH GUIANA ? Did it take a break from heat records ? Never!
37C St Georges all time high tied https://t.co/BSMT8YzXJw
After the record heat with 46.5C, the heat is slowing a bit in Paraguay and Bolivia (but will come back in the weekend with more 45C+), but there is no relief in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso/do Sul: Today Cuiaba is having its 29th day >40C and will record 42/43C all week. https://t.co/0Gz7uU1RPy— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 18, 2023
Another record day in the Guyanas and Caribbeans yesterday,historic:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 18, 2023
36.2C Cayenne Airport all time record
37.0C New Amsterdam all time record tied (it was set in few weeks ago)
34.0C Point Salines AP all time record tied
More records are coming pic.twitter.com/Q7FZU9u76g
An exceptional warm spell will kick off in Europe in the next hours:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 18, 2023
Sirocco from North Africa will blow North/East with full strenght, we can expect
35C South Mediterranean
30C Balkans & East Europe including Moldova
Tropical nights,Widespread Tmins 18C/25C pic.twitter.com/OkW2JMT54w
Records are falling in several parts of Africa too.— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 18, 2023
Let's see a couple of islands/archipelagos:
34.5C Agalega Island , It beats again the Mauritian record heat for October
36.2C Mindelo hottest day in climatic history for any month pic.twitter.com/RvBfcgEc2F
Here is some more brand-new September and October 2023 climatology:
Mid month checkpoint:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) October 18, 2023
Global temperature anomaly for 1-15 October according to the JRA-55 reanalysis is +0.84C above the 1991-2020 normal,similar to September.
Spain and Portugal are the most above average countries nationwide,Libya the most below.
Antarctica is below average. pic.twitter.com/jYVMW9gvur
A truly historic September has left climate scientists stunned, and brought up a debate on how close we might be to 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels. A summary of the debate, plus a summary of the slew of ridiculous records set last month: https://t.co/LyS93QHu7n— Jeff Masters (@DrJeffMasters) October 13, 2023
Here is More Climate and Weather News from Wednesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
In the 1980s, the US experienced one billion+ dollar extreme weather event every 4 months. Nowadays? There's one every 3 weeks and @YaleClimateComm's latest poll shows this is American's #1 concern when it comes to climate impacts. Source: https://t.co/lrN1IJptJ5 pic.twitter.com/MOGHgeeKCS— The Real Prof. Katharine Hayhoe (@KHayhoe) October 18, 2023
Yup. Wait for it. https://t.co/vOZieNOCAg— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) October 18, 2023
Breaking News!— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) October 18, 2023
Yesterday the global sea surface temperature anomaly hit a new record high of 0.702°C above the 1991-2020 mean, beating the previous record anomaly of 0.700°C set on September 9th. This is a 'Code UFB' event. pic.twitter.com/k90cMF0aK3
Striking warmth over the last three months across our oceans due to an unlucky combination of factors and, of course, human-caused climate change.— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) October 18, 2023
[Data from @NOAA ERSSTv5 averaged over July to September] pic.twitter.com/cxRMmFc7iL
Yes, there are some reasons to be concerned about conflicts of interest in the upcoming #COP28, as I've pointed out (https://t.co/Pel2wrLBFh).— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 18, 2023
But unilateral disengagement from the process would be an early holiday gift to the fossil fuel industry and petrostates. https://t.co/esqnc71tVK pic.twitter.com/hCSVoJgEXu
As global temperature reaches 1.5°C, the point where climate tipping events are likely to begin, every civilised person has the obligation to act according to their conscience. #ClimateAction— Prof Nick Cowern (@NickCowern) October 17, 2023
BBC News – Greta Thunberg detained at Fossil Free London protesthttps://t.co/btal8AELm6
Today’s News on Sustainable, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:
The Biden administration has begun imposing new rules on some 400,000 miles of gas pipes. Many are bigger and more dangerous lines laid since the boom in fracking.https://t.co/LHv9yVbeh7— Inside Climate News (@insideclimate) October 18, 2023
New study finds: "due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies." https://t.co/kT8UqDJFK4— David Roberts (@drvolts) October 18, 2023
EPA says leaded aviation fuel used in small planes is a toxic threat: “they still pose risks near their airports, many of which are mostly in or near poor or minority communities.” @TimPuko https://t.co/HDBVfZPOrT— Rocky Kistner (@therockyfiles) October 18, 2023
Thrilled to be in Georgia🍑— Secretary Jennifer Granholm (@SecGranholm) October 18, 2023
Here to underscore how @POTUS’ Investing in America agenda is strengthening and modernizing America’s electric grid to reduce the impact of natural disasters while also ensuring the reliability of the power sector. pic.twitter.com/Wn1CnMWVCC
#WednesdaayMorning Reading #Energy "That’s not a typo. solar panels produce roughly 200 times more energy per acre than corn." #Solar+#food in #ethanol fields could fully power the United States https://t.co/vfIQ0CaFKy— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) October 18, 2023
Reliable energy storage systems are key to providing dependable sources of power when and where it’s needed most.— Secretary Jennifer Granholm (@SecGranholm) October 18, 2023
With $725M, we're supporting long-duration energy-demonstration projects that will ensure reliable, safe power across America.https://t.co/NhWCDunxFH
Another #renewable first for Scotland. Cars are now being charged by the power of the ocean.— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) October 18, 2023
We have so many solutions. Implement them. #ActOnClimate #ClimateCrisis #Climate #energy #renewableenergy #greennewdeal pic.twitter.com/i9aGn8b3GY
Farmers in Kenya are using #solarpower to improve crop yields. The panels help reduce heat stress, reduce water loss, grow larger crops and cut energy bills.— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) October 17, 2023
We have the solutions. Implement them. #ActOnClimate #ClimateCrisis #climate #energy #solar #climateaction pic.twitter.com/mJTAtGkaRj
More from the Weather Department:
El Niño having major impact on agricultural production in Peru. Asparagus down by 40%, blueberries by 50%, mangoes by 70%, avocados by 30%, and grapes by 25%. Peru has been a prominent producer of fresh produce in off-seasons, but this is now under threat. https://t.co/Dix2nYWO98— Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) October 18, 2023
Today's tropical weather: Lesser Antilles likely to get impacts from disturbance 94L on Fri and Sat; Tropical Storm Norma likely to affect Baja Mexico as a hurricane this weekend; North Indian Ocean could get a tropical cyclone by this weekend. https://t.co/uvqUgfZCeU— Jeff Masters (@DrJeffMasters) October 18, 2023
NHC 2 PM: “a tropical storm is— John Morales (@JohnMoralesTV) October 18, 2023
expected to form later today or tonight while moving westward or
west-northwestward toward the Lesser Antilles”
No se confíen. Está bien al sur, debajo de 13 grados N. Si yo fuese a dibujar el “cono”, yo pondría a PR adentro (pero no RD). #Tammy https://t.co/GVGyOfjaTu
Have the leaves changed color in your city yet?— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) October 18, 2023
We want to see… 👀 pic.twitter.com/5lHcT5YdCc
Peek-a-boo! Houses in Montana are hidden under towering walls of tumbleweeds as strong winds up to 95mph blow through the region. pic.twitter.com/umueGn5hlr— AccuWeather (@accuweather) October 18, 2023
More on the Environment:
Vasts swaths of abandoned farmland are ripe for rewilding, experts say, with huge potential to boost wildlife and draw down carbon.https://t.co/dg7NFpP6Y1— Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) October 18, 2023
“Today, the reef is functionally extinct, with only 1-2% of coral coverage.” https://t.co/o9LC8AG5N6— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) October 18, 2023
More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:
A family of owls in a clock tower in France— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) October 18, 2023
[📹 Nicolas Dubois / _nicolasdubois] pic.twitter.com/b6oOXjAyuJ