Extreme Temperature Diary- Thursday November 2nd, 2023/Main Topic: Strange Ways Here We Come…Why There May Be Changes with Traditional El Niño Weather Patterns

The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉

Main Topic: Strange Ways Here We Come…Why There May Be Changes with Traditional El Niño Weather Patterns

Dear Diary. As anomalously warm as it is across the planet late this year, we might expect some changes with traditional weather patterns. So far, the other shoe has not dropped across the tropical Atlantic, which is as quite as a pin drop even though Ocean heat content for early November is at record levels. I thought that we might have a hurricane to contend with by now looking at model guidance:

There are a lot of thunderstorms in the Caribbean at the moment, but they have not organized into a tropical depression or storm, thankfully. El Nino wind shear played no role here. A traditional El Niño pattern would have produced plenty of shear across the Caribbean:

What about the U.S. mainland? Over the last week we saw a cold outbreak that has rivaled any from colder times during the 1970s during late October, setting approximately 750 daily record low minimums across the whole country except for the Northeast. Much milder conditions are expected for the first half of November, though. That cold outbreak was very unusual for the U.S. during a near record El Niño.

What about wet conditions that should be taking place because of El Niño across the southern part of the United States, bringing some drought relief? That hasn’t materialized either yet this fall, although there is hope for the winter. Drought conditions continue to expand:

As a reminder, here was the old National Weather Service outlook for Fall 2023:

The Southeast has been dry instead of wet, so far. Baring a wet second half of November, drought will be expanding rather than contracting across the area. Why? Strong weather systems in association with an active jet stream have not materialized, partially I think due to global warming. Going out in time we see a warm pattern with very few jet wiggles to work with from the Rockies eastward:

If the above operational model or associated ensembles verifies, we should see the start of a traditional split flow El Nino pattern, which will bring relatively dry weather to the northern tier of states and cool wet weather to the southern states after November 15th. But do expect to see an “unusual” event somewhere.

As warm as sea surface temperatures are across the globe, don’t be surprised if a wet seasonal forecast is a big bust:

I’ll let my readers know just exactly how odd weather gets across the country as we move from fall to winter this year.

Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:

Here is some more new October 2023 climatology:

Here is More Climate and Weather News from Thursday:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)

Today’s News on Sustainable, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:

More from the Weather Department:

More on the Environment and Nature:

More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:

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Guy Walton… “The Climate Guy”

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