The main purpose of this ongoing blog will be to track planetary extreme, or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials).😉
Main Topic: 2023…The Hottest Year in 125,000 Years
Dear Diary. It’s now a sure lock that 2023 will be the hottest year in recorded history. We are only one day out from getting global October climatology from NASA and NOAA, which by all of the information I’m seeing will be eye popingly hot and a record breaker:
Top 5 warmest October global temperatures since at least 1891 – using data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (https://t.co/U8Rr0xYguf)— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) November 14, 2023
No, I did not make this graph, so plz don't complain to me about the regression line. pic.twitter.com/Q2mf8azhFR
And for November:
So what was the worse thing that happened last week? ➡️📢 The world went over 2C for the first time,— Roger Hallam (@RogerHallamCS21) November 13, 2023
(as a variable, rather than trend line). https://t.co/0sZ1c3ZpZ5
Even if the planet were to somehow get cooler during November and December, 2023 as a whole will prove to be record warm. Looking at paleoclimatology, 2023 and just about all subsequent years coming during the 21st century will be the warmest in 125,000 years.
Last week Climate Central confirmed these statistics. Here is their report via Desdemona Despair:
Earth had its hottest year on record in 2023 – “This is the hottest temperature that our planet has experienced in something like 125,000 years”
Global mean surface temperature anomaly, 1970-2023. The average global temperature in 2023 was 1.32°C above that during the pre-industrial baseline period of 1850 to 1900, surpassing the previous record of 1.29°C that was set from October 2015 to September 2016. Data: Climate Central. Graphic: Nature–
By Carissa Wong
10 November 2023
(Nature) – The past 12 months were the hottest on record. Some 7.3 billion people worldwide were exposed, for at least 10 days, to temperatures that were heavily influenced by global warming, with one-quarter of people facing dangerous levels of extreme heat over the past 12 months, according to a report by the non-profit organization Climate Central.
“These impacts are only going to grow as long as we continue to burn coal oil and natural gas,” says Andrew Pershing, the vice-president for science at Climate Central.
Researchers have previously estimated the influence of climate change on specific extreme weather events, a process known as climate attribution. Now, scientists have calculated the impact of human-induced climate change on daily air temperatures in 175 countries and 920 cities from November 2022 to the start of October 2023.
They found that the average global temperature over the past 12 months was 1.32 ºC above that during the pre-industrial baseline period of 1850 to 1900, surpassing the previous record of 1.29 ºC that was set from October 2015 to September 2016 (see ‘Heating planet’). The report comes as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service predicted that 2023 will be the hottest calendar year on record, with the average temperature up to October being 1.43 ºC above the pre-industrial average.
“This is the hottest temperature that our planet has experienced in something like 125,000 years,” says Pershing, the vice-president for science at Climate Central.
Most of this warming, about 1.28 ºC, results from human-induced climate change, with natural variation in the climate caused by processes such as the ongoing ocean-warming event El Niño contributing much less, says climate researcher Friederike Otto at Imperial College London.
By analysing daily air-temperature data and using computational climate models, the team calculated the effect of climate change on daily temperatures worldwide using a measure called the Climate Shift Index (CSI). The CSI scale runs from –5 to 5. A CSI value of zero means there is no detectable influence of human-caused climate change on the daily temperature, whereas a positive CSI value indicates how much more likely climate change made the daily temperature. A negative CSI value means climate change made the observed temperature less likely.
The researchers found that 7.3 billion people worldwide were exposed, for at least 10 days, to temperatures that were strongly impacted by climate change. In the first half of the past 12 months, tropical regions across South America, Africa and the Malay archipelago experienced the most days with temperatures that were strongly attributable to climate change, defined as having a CSI value of three or higher. These effects were felt even more strongly in the second half of the year-long period.
In Jamaica, the country where global warming had the greatest impact on daily temperatures, people experienced temperatures that were made over 4.5 times more likely by climate change. Guatemala and Rwanda also experienced temperatures that were made more than four times more likely by climate change.
Cities with the longest extreme heat streaks (days) in 2023. 156 cities in 37 countries experienced five or more consecutive days of extreme heat, with 144 cities experiencing temperatures that were made at least 2 times more likely by climate change. Houston, Texas, had the longest heat streak of 22 days. This was followed by Jakarta, New Orleans, Louisiana, Tangerang in Indonesia, and Quijing in China where people faced at least 16 days of extreme heat in a row. Worldwide, 1.9 billion people, or 24 percent of the world’s population, endured five consecutive days of extreme heat. Data: Climate Central. Graphic: Nature
The researchers also estimated the extent to which 700 cities with populations of at least 1 million experienced extreme heat over the past 12 months, defined as daily temperatures that are expected to occur less than 1% of the time in that region. They did this by comparing recent temperature data with data collected over a reference period of 1991–2020.
The team found that 156 cities in 37 countries experienced five or more consecutive days of extreme heat, with 144 cities experiencing temperatures that were made at least 2 times more likely by climate change. Houston, Texas, had the longest heat streak of 22 days. This was followed by Jakarta, New Orleans, Louisiana, Tangerang in Indonesia, and Quijing in China where people faced at least 16 days of extreme heat in a row (see ‘Unbroken heat’). Worldwide, 1.9 billion people, or 24% of the world’s population, endured five consecutive days of extreme heat.
Extreme heat, along with flooding and droughts, is often deadly and displaces thousands of people. “By continuing to burn fossil fuels the way we do, it’s a massive violation of the really basic human rights of the vast majority of the planet,” says Otto.
Next year, El Niño, which is projected to last until at least April 2024, will push temperatures even higher, says Pershing. [more]
Here are more “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
Extreme contrasts in Europe today:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 14, 2023
In Scandinavia harsh cold spell with temperatures up to -32.5C at Nikkaluokta and very warm in SW Europe with a summer-like day and temperatures locally >30c in Spain and close to 30C in French Cote Azul.
Many Records are falling in France. tbc. https://t.co/gzPFY1Rir6
Historic 🇪🇸— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 14, 2023
33.2 at Coin NEW NOVEMBER RECORD IN SPAIN
Record also 32.6C at Alicante/Elche;dozens stations >30C
It has been an extraordinary month in the Mediterranean; all countries except Italy beat records:
Spain,Morocco,Algeria,Tunisia,Malta,Libya,Egypt,Greece,Turkey & Cyprus pic.twitter.com/rGSpsxHkmi
We often focus on global surface temperatures as a key metric for climate change.— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) November 14, 2023
But as we note in the Climate Trends chapter of the new US 5th National Climate Assessment, we see incontrovertible evidence for climate change across the oceans, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere: pic.twitter.com/fHjGHEgqf1
Historic heat wave in #France. 59 stations broke their November records both in Corsica (up to 28.9C at Oletta) and in mainland France. (see list below by Meteociel)— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 14, 2023
Most important records include
27.0C Cap Sagro
25.9C Ile Rousse @AS_Colombani pic.twitter.com/WYc99c0Le8
Another day with dozens November records broken in #Brazil up to 42.6C at Coxim;few are all time records,including 41.6C Alegre. 👎— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 13, 2023
BOLIVIA Record hottest night:30.1C again at San Jose
44.9C yesterday at Yacuiba 645m asl,all time high smashed.
42.8C San Matias monthly record. pic.twitter.com/NeR8uUPcBw
37.4C today in the historical Observatory of Sao Paulo-Mirante de Santana in Brazil🇧🇷— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 13, 2023
This beats its monthly record again and it approaches the all time high 37.8C set in October 2014.
Temps can keep rising and staying 10/12C above normal all week.
This situation is unprecedented pic.twitter.com/j8u2A56VXa
#Australia keeps beating records:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 14, 2023
Today the long term station of Tambo in Queensland had a scorching hot night with its highest Tmin in November on record:27.9C.
Next days hundreds records will fall in Southern hemisphere in South America,Southern Africa and Western Australia. pic.twitter.com/UK9soFrXrI
🌡️ It's been an exceptionally hot month so far in southern Europe. Records have been broken, with 33.2 Celsius provisionally recorded in Coín, Spain today— Met Office (@metoffice) November 14, 2023
🥶 But in Scandinavia it's very cold, even for November, with minus 32.5 Celsius last night in Nikkaluokta, Sweden pic.twitter.com/i2A4Po55sK
Here is some more new October 2023 climatology:
Just in:— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) November 14, 2023
October 2023 Globally, according to JMA-Japanese Meteorological Agency, had a temperature anomaly of 0.74C vs. 1991-2020,which destroys the previous hottest October 2015 (+0.38C). pic.twitter.com/svJdPiRJBu
Here is More Climate and Weather News from Tuesday:
(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity. In most instances click on the pictures of each tweet to see each article. The most noteworthy items will be listed first.)
The 5th National Climate Assessment has been released! Dive in to better understand the impacts of our changing climate across the United States (#OpenAccess): https://t.co/0mocz325LH— Zack Labe (@ZLabe) November 14, 2023
"With each additional increment of warming, the consequences of climate change increase." #NCA5 pic.twitter.com/dQhh6ZryMc
After three years of work by a team of over 750 scientists, we are releasing the US 5th National Climate Assessment today!— Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath) November 14, 2023
We see greater impacts of climate change on the US since the 2018 NCA4 report, but also some encouraging signs of progress.https://t.co/2WZOLOXoKo
Hot off the press – new climate research 🚨🌍🔥— Joeri Rogelj (@JoeriRogelj) November 14, 2023
Will warming stop once we reach net zero CO2 emissions?
Open-access publication @FrontiersIn assessing what we know and don't know about whether warming will stop once net zero CO2 emissions are reached. /1https://t.co/aEdFLXmZmy
"Warming ends when carbon pollution stops" | My editorial for #FrontiersInScience (@FrontiersIn) on new article by Palazzo-Corner et al on zero emissions warming commitment (it it likely close to zero, though w/ some uncertainty): https://t.co/VfV5CBMgrd— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) November 14, 2023
Yes, we can still stop the worst effects of climate change. Here's why. https://t.co/aJect55bJO— Live Science (@LiveScience) November 14, 2023
Most likely warming after zero emissions are reached is zero (actually, slightly negative ~ 0.1C cooling), but there is substantial uncertainty. Roughly 1-in-3 chance of exceeding 1.5C if emissions reached zero right now.— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) November 14, 2023
Message: it's urgent to reduce carbon emissions NOW! https://t.co/NwtHJ5rSDI pic.twitter.com/xAh6WkfvDS
#TuesdayMorning Reading: "Both politicians and governments are seen in the mass media as sources of information on climate change relatively frequently, but both have lower than average public trust." Report by Reuters Institute on accessing #ClimateChange news. Deep dive: https://t.co/hZxBOOpJ6Z— Silicon Valley North (@CCLSVN) November 14, 2023
Climate change is an everything issue.— The Nature Conservancy (@nature_org) November 14, 2023
The good news? We have solutions. TNC Chief Scientist @KHayhoe and lead author on the Fifth National Climate Assessment shares a path forward. #NCA5 https://t.co/ejUHKJe3eq
As world ocean heats up— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) November 14, 2023
The cold blob near Greenland is only part of the ocean that has actually got colder and by as much as 1 C
This proves how AMOC – critical ocean circulation system that transfers heat is slowing down and nearing a tipping point as early as mid century pic.twitter.com/BVaNqUmBOX
"Dear friends, scientifically, this is not a #ClimateCrisis. We are now facing something deeper. Mass extinction. Air pollution. Undermining ecosystem functions. Really putting humanity’s future at risk. This is a #PlanetaryCrisis."— Mike Hudema (@MikeHudema) November 14, 2023
— Professor @jrockstrom#ActOnClimate pic.twitter.com/YHTQPiIliz
We are now breaching 6 of Earth 9 critical Earth boundaries which will take us back— GO GREEN (@ECOWARRIORSS) November 14, 2023
to a place similar to
The Permian extinction which took place 252 million years ago wiped out 96% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial life.https://t.co/AtfhESAQtL. pic.twitter.com/NOABWhDNDi
Australia signs historic climate refuge treaty with Tuvalu— Green News Report (@GreenNewsReport) November 14, 2023
Last 12 months were the hottest in recorded history
GOP debate #3 ignores climate change
Big energy policy changes in 2023 election
Manchin to exit the Senate…
Our new @GreenNewsReport
LISTEN: https://t.co/YDlWgliKwL pic.twitter.com/SVh5238QZf
‘The science is irrefutable’: US warming faster than global average, says report https://t.co/JBOked423N— Guardian Environment (@guardianeco) November 14, 2023
Your 'moment of doom' for Nov. 14, 2023 ~ Demonstrating ignorance of overshoot.— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) November 14, 2023
"Climate doomers insist it’s too late to act. They claim we’ve triggered runaway warming due to a putative, unstoppable release of methane…as the Arctic permafrost melts."https://t.co/9iuko9ltGj
“The Lives Between the Lines of the National Climate Assessment”— Dr. Mustafa Santiago Ali 🇧🇷 🇪🇹 🇵🇷🇯🇲🤙🏾 (@EJinAction) November 14, 2023
In shadows cast by warming flames we dwell,
Whispered truths through scorched lips, we tell.
In pages scribed with science's cold embrace,
We unearth tales of suffering, our sacred space.
The National Climate… pic.twitter.com/FlbdRtzfps
Today’s News on Sustainable Energy, Traditional Polluting Energy from Fossil Fuel, and the Green Revolution:
'Coal must be phased out seven times faster and deforestation reduced four times faster to avoid worst impacts of #climate breakdown.'#Nuclear takes up to 17 yrs for just one station.— Dr Paul Dorfman (@dorfman_p) November 14, 2023
We don't have time for fissile fuel.#ClimateCrisis https://t.co/wtqJ6Fa6ws
Imagine reporting on climate breakdown without using the words 'aerosols', 'oil', 'gas', 'US', 'Canada', 'loss', 'damage', 'collapse', or 'extinction'.— Ben See (@ClimateBen) November 14, 2023
We're hitting 1.5/2°C now in the 2020s.
The capitalist energy transition has already failed.
More from the Weather Department:
Concerning setup for Miami-Dade and FLL metros with isolated double-digit rainfall possible. https://t.co/lzyQbR8MMk— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) November 14, 2023
Models have been interesting with competing lows from our southeast system sliding east. One showing in the upper Gulf. One showing off the Florida east coast. HRRR here. EURO/GFS has been teasing too. Nothing marked by the NHC… but will bring some heavy rains/winds/waves and… pic.twitter.com/dcc8r5gQcq— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) November 14, 2023
Latest HRRR rainfall estimates the next 48 hours. Some double digits showing for SE Florida. Something to watch for sure. Panhandle still in the mix. Florida west coast… what did you do? https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/XfSigrcdQr— Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) November 14, 2023
Don’t look now, but we have another tropical system that has a 70% chance of development.— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) November 14, 2023
The next name up is “Vince.”https://t.co/RUdzQXDI7P
1 pm EST Nov. 14: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the SW Caribbean by Thursday and has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression late this week. Interests in the Greater Antilles should monitor this system's progress.https://t.co/DboWSR4Ct1 pic.twitter.com/9OnyMENUPx— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 14, 2023
Another storm leaves yet more devastation, marking #StormDebi as the earliest named storm with the letter D for this stage in a season. Those who deny the worsening state of the climate system are deluding themselves. pic.twitter.com/iloguvQOQL— Peter Dynes (@PGDynes) November 13, 2023
As next cold front comes down and picks up low from Gulf of Mexico late this week it will be interesting to see how close it gets to east coast for the weekend. In other words the OBX and Cape Cod may or may not get a good soaking. Also note this is NOT the tropical low in the… pic.twitter.com/VKs727ii9l— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) November 14, 2023
More on the Environment and Nature:
“Extreme drought in northern Italy has doubled over the past two decades, creating a climate that increasingly mirrors that of Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, research shows”#ClimateCrisis #ClimateAction https://t.co/h5n5SLLeX9— Green News Report (@GreenNewsReport) November 14, 2023
"Media has conditioned us to an unlimited throw away society"…….— Robert Redmayne Hosking 🔥🌍🔥 (@rhosking252) November 14, 2023
We have been indoctrinated with a buy now culture, 24/7, that dictates we consume limitless amounts of the earth's resources…….
No regard for sustainability at any level.
The media has become the disease. pic.twitter.com/XRYW23XOv9
Now imagine what 2.2 million people in #Gaza have been breathing in from the rubble and dust from over all their destroyed buildings.— Paul Beckwith (@PaulHBeckwith) November 14, 2023
Air Pollution Is Really Dangerous, Even More New Evidence Shows – Scientific American https://t.co/5pAPaqyJN2
Increased Bolivia🇧🇴 & Brazil🇧🇷 fire emissions for November with pyroconvection and smoke plumes with v high (> 400 ppb) carbon monoxide at 850 hPa (~1.5 km) in the @CopernicusECMWF Atmosphere Monitoring Service @ECMWF forecast from 14 Nov 00 UTC https://t.co/W84Bwszpqr pic.twitter.com/RPeVr5FOmm— Mark Parrington (@m_parrington) November 14, 2023
Officials are urgently thinning overgrown forests to protect giant sequoias from catastrophic wildfires.— Yale Environment 360 (@YaleE360) November 14, 2023
But some conservationists fear that poorly planned thinning projects could leave sequoias even more vulnerable to fire.https://t.co/xvVgaUXyvj
Raven playing a prank on this wolf— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) November 14, 2023
More on Other Science and the Beauty of Earth and this Universe:
The @GOP weaponized skepticism of public health science during the pandemic as part of a larger decades-long project to sow distrust in science writ large (esp e.g. climate science) & advance agenda of corporate funders (see #NewClimateWar: https://t.co/XQf0sfK3kf).— Prof Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) November 14, 2023
It's working: https://t.co/kSwU1avYhN
Men are living shorter than ever versus women. Top reason? #COVID19.— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) November 14, 2023
Men are less likely to vaccinate, less likely to mask, less willing/slow to see doctors, and also higher biological risk of severe #COVID.
The last one is biological, but others are maybe toxic masculinity. pic.twitter.com/PZ40CM5Yw8
The size of this elks leap— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) November 14, 2023
Normally, the Atacama Desert in Chile, receives less than 12 mm of rain a year.— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 14, 2023
However in the years when rainfall is unusually high, between September and November, this can happen.
It's called «desierto florido». pic.twitter.com/7mNIlPDBnV
sick!! https://t.co/fXF2IAKehJ— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) November 14, 2023
"Human hunger is the enemy of our forests. When we help local people to plant forests and manage them sustainably, we also create jobs and prosperity. That is why the way out of the climate crisis leads directly to our forests," demanded DFWR President Georg Schirmbeck.💚🌿🌲🌳🍀 pic.twitter.com/flEKhvcUAU— Green is a mission (@Greenisamissio1) November 14, 2023