Extreme Temperature Diary- May 26th, 2018/ Topic: Very Odd Weather Climate Change Clues (Mekunu)

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Saturday May 26th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing post will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials)😊. Here is today’s main climate change related topic:

Very Odd Weather Climate Change Clues (Mekunu)

Besides extreme changes in temperature nature leaves weather clues indicating that the climate is changing. One of the most obvious would be tropical cyclones happening out of season or in odd places. Last year we saw a hurricane, Ophelia, affect Ireland in mid October:

(Image from Wikipedia) Ophelia was the most eastern major hurricane in the Atlantic basin record.

This year in the Gulf of Oman Mekunu is raising eyebrows. It’s not out of the physical, meteorological realm of possibility that both Ophelia and Mekunu could have occurred in the same geographical locations and produced the same effects say in the 1960s, but a warmer world increases the likelihood for odd storms to crank in odd places and at unusual times of the year. In the case of Mekunu near the Arabian peninsula MIT has already produced a study in 2015 saying such:

http://news.mit.edu/2015/grey-swan-cyclones-storm-surge-0831

The article title:

“Grey swan” cyclones predicted to be more frequent and intense. Study finds some coastal regions may face a risk of unprecedented storm surge in the next century.

So just how rare and unprecedented was Mekunu? Eric Holthaus has been blogging on the system putting it into perspective:

One of the strongest cyclones ever to hit Oman — equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. Landfall in a few hours.

Another look at today from
10:24 AM – 25 May 2018 

Mekunu is about 12 hours from a direct hit on Salalah, Oman — a city of 200,000 people. Sustained winds currently estimated at 115mph (185kph). About 15 inches (400mm) of total rainfall expected — five years’ worth.

May 25

 

In the past 120 yrs, just 5 hurricane-strength cyclones have made landfall in Oman—1898, 1959, 2007, 2010—and today. (Chapala, in 2015, was the last to hit the Arabian Peninsula—and the only one ever to hit Yemen) So… 6 total in this part of the world, 4 in the past 11 years.

May 25

By the end of the century, research suggests that this trend toward more frequent cyclones in the Arabian Peninsula could spread to the Persian Gulf — where there has never been a hurricane-strength storm in recorded history.

One reason we’re very worried about Cat 3 Cyclone : there’s a wall of mountains just a few miles inland from . Huge rainfall amounts and devastating floods are possible
8:39 AM – 25 May 2018
Mekunu made landfall earlier today with ferocious effects:

reported 249.4 mm (9.82″) of rain from Cyclone during the 24 hrs ending at 4 AM Sat local time. That’s nearly twice  the annual average. Even heavier rains no doubt fell across nearby  mountainsides. Still raining @ 7 AM.

8:18 PM – 25 May 2018
Not only will tropical cyclones start affecting odd corners of the Earth not used to tropical activity, but in “off” seasons due to climate change. Case in point is Alberto currently in the Gulf of Mexico:

5 of the last 7 years (including 2018) have seen the first named storm before the official June 1 Hurricane Season start date.
8:40 AM – 25 May 2018
I suspect that we will see more “odd storms” before this year is out, which I will report.
…………………………………………………………………………………..
Now back to the current heat wave affecting the U.S. Tomorrow exceptionally hot conditions for late May will spread eastward through the Great Lakes area:
If it gets as high as 96F at Chicago on Sunday the 27th that would be one degree shy of  a daily record and also one degree below the warmest reading set so early in any given year. I expect many ETs to be reported from the nation’s mid section on Sunday.  (From Threadex: http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/)

This is what a cold lake, a hot day, and a short distance can do. High of 92°F at Duluth Int’l was the city’s hottest on record for so early in the year.
5:50 PM – 26 May 2018

It’s a HOT one out there. Shattered two high temperature records today; one at Duluth and the other at Brainerd. More warm weather on tap for Sunday and Memorial Day!
1:22 PM – 26 May 2018
Here are todays smoldering maxes:

As if we needed more confirmation it’s hot outside… 😓☀️🔥

4:18 PM – 26 May 2018

This is our forecast here in West Texas for the next FIFTEEN DAYS.

For context, the historical long term average number of days per year over 100F is ~10.

5:03 PM – 26 May 2018

At 3:44 pm CDT, we hit 102°F which breaks the old record of 101°F set in 1945.  We may climb a degree or two more this afternoon before the high clouds become thick enough to help cool temperatures down a bit.
2:03 PM – 26 May 2018

3:58 PM: The high so far today at Waco has been 98 degrees.  This ties the record high for May 26th previously set in 1904.

1:59 PM – 26 May 2018

Heat Advisory through Sunday evening for most of West Texas.   
3:05 PM – 26 May 2018
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The Climate Guy

 

3 thoughts on “Extreme Temperature Diary- May 26th, 2018/ Topic: Very Odd Weather Climate Change Clues (Mekunu)”

  1. From the NWS office out of KC St. Joseph Mo( kstj) had our second warmest May temp in our recorded history of 102F this Saturday, ( the record is 103, in 1934 on May 30th) so we are earlier this year. ( We also had our coldest April in history, talk about a swing).

    Reply

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