Extreme Temperature Diary-September 18, 2018/ Topic: Buckle Up…Worldwide “Cooling Trend” About To End

guyonclimate_mi5tor

Tuesday September 18th… Dear Diary. The main purpose of this ongoing post will be to track United States extreme or record temperatures related to climate change. Any reports I see of ETs will be listed below the main topic of the day. I’ll refer to extreme or record temperatures as ETs (not extraterrestrials)😊.  Here is today’s main climate change related topic:

Buckle Up…Worldwide Cooling Trend About To End

Today both NASA and the National Center for Environmental Information have wrapped up global statistics for the planet through August 2018. The climate and world community were aghast from 2014-2016 seeing one world record broken after another as global temperatures spiked in conjunction with a very strong El Nino. As expected, the Earth’s “fever” broke in 2017 as the strong El Nino ENSO phase transitioned to a weak LA Nina phase. Nevertheless, despite slightly cooler global averages, extreme warmth occurred during the summer months on land across the Northern Hemisphere.  Monstrous heat waves occurred both in Europe and in portions of the United States and Canada in 2018 exacerbated by carbon pollution.. Higher sea surface temperatures than average occurred across the northwest Atlantic by about 2-4F playing a big role in making Florence a more powerful storm (see: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Climate-Changes-Influence-Hurricane-Florence-Wetter-and-Larger-Storm). My big question going forward is whether or not the planet will have to face the consequences of additional warming, spiking temperatures back to 2016 levels are even higher in 2019 and 2020. Let’s briefly explore trends by carefully looking at some graphs on today’s post.

This type of chart has recently been added to NASA’s statistical arsenal visually showing the planet’s warming trend using slightly different colors for each years worth of data:

Notice that through August 2018 this year is just a hair under the top lines on the above chart. As far as August goes it’s ranked as such:

The latest GISTEMP surface temperature analysis update has been posted. The global mean temperature anomaly for August 2018 was 0.77°C above the 1951-1980 average.

8:15 AM – 17 Sep 2018

At 1.33°F above average, the August 2018 global temperature was the 5th highest for August on record:

8:06 AM – 18 Sep 2018
And finally:

The five warmest months of August on our planet since record-keeping began? 2014 to 2018. Same for Berkeley Earth:
3:15 AM – 18 Sep 2018
The above chart from Dr. Rahmstorf  plainly shows how much global averages have fallen since 2016. Take a very close look at the downward lines on the chart since 1980. The longest such downward line came in 1992 after Mount Pinatubo blew its stack in 1992 cooling global temperatures significantly. The longest period of decline since the turn of the 21st century was between 2008-2010 after the strong La Nina of 2007 (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/8201/la-nina-strengthens-in-autumn-2007). The spikes and nadirs on charts, which I am thoroughly interested in, can tell us something about short range future trends. In this case if the cooling trend continued in 2019 we would see the longest period of global cooling since 2010 on Dr. Rahmstorf’s chart. Certainly some eyebrows would be raised if the cooling trend continue for four years through 2020.
Looking at recent spikes and nadirs I would forecast that a warning trend will recommence in 2019 with almost near certainty by 2020 unless another Pinatubo type eruption or stronger happens somewhere on the planet. We also know that another El Nino, which will probably be the catalyst for any new warming trend, is due this fall adding to heat building both at the ocean’s surface and in the atmosphere. Here is one more new chart showing specific spikes and nadirs in association with global average temperatures:
 
Looking at the above chart I can see that the jig is just about up or done for any cooling trend. We are currently sitting at about +.08C above long term global averages above preindustrial conditions. Buckle up. Expect the dreaded trend back towards +1.5C and above averages with all of its consequences very soon.
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I’ll be adding some of today’s climate related news below this statement later today:

(As usual, this will be a fluid post in which more information gets added during the day as it crosses my radar, crediting all who have put it on-line. Items will be archived on this site for posterity.)

Please donate for those affected by but check first with this organization, which provides reliable info on what percent of donations go to those in need vs. what percent goes to salaries, administrative costs, etc. My go-to.

3:08 PM – 18 Sep 2018

What is it like to measure 34 inches of rain in a ? spoke with the N.C. observer who did so during .

11:50 AM – 18 Sep 2018

You can clearly see the water levels rising in Cape Fear River as we compare photos from Sunday to Today.

4:17 AM – 18 Sep 2018 from Fayetteville, NC

That’s not a river. It’s I-40 into Wilmington,NC.

6:40 PM – 17 Sep 2018 from Oklahoma, USA

Waccamaw River at Longs & Conway will crest higher than they ever have in recorded history. In Longs, crest is Sat/Sun at 24 ft…6 ft higher than hurricane FLoyd. In Conway, expected to rise to 19.7 ft Sunday then close to 21 ft. NEXT Tue/Wed…3 ft higher than Matthew

12:47 PM – 18 Sep 2018

As Hurricane Florence barreled toward the coast, a trucker from Tennessee raced into four South Carolina towns to evacuate animal shelters. Using his school bus, he evacuated 64 dogs and cats, and it turns out it’s not the first time he’s done so.

https://weather.com/news/news/2018-09-18-trucker-rescues-64-pets-hurricane-florence

12:50 PM – 18 Sep 2018

Amazing graphic showing how quickly the soil of NC and SC became saturated with the nearly constant rain.

Natural climate oscillations in north Atlantic linked to Greenland ice sheet melt: ScienceDaily |

1:37 PM – 18 Sep 2018

About half of the world’s population lives in or near subtropical semi-arid climate zones, the researchers write, so changes in the subtropical climate could affect billions of people:
1:53 AM – 18 Sep 2018

change makes hurricanes way more intense via

12:55 AM – 18 Sep 2018
We have a major ET report from my neck of the woods. It’s been hot in Georgia:

Today’s high temperature of 100 degrees in Macon breaks the daily record for September 18th, which was 99 degrees and was set back in 1931.
1:50 PM – 18 Sep 2018

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The Climate Guy

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