Saturday Night Update… Dear diary. Looking at trends I’m changing my alarmist forecast to a category 4 hurricane hugging the west coast of Florida, which would be horrendously catastrophic anyway. Irma should strengthen to a four looking at new GFS guidance. Regardless, if Irma passes just west of Tampa Bay at CAT 3 strength the […]
Heat Diary 2017
A daily track of climate change-related heat trends across the United States during the summer months.
Summer Heat and Flood Diary September 6-7, 2017
Overnight Thursday/Friday Updates… Dear diary. This Irma nightmare keeps getting worse. I can’t sleep before posting the latest model data. From here on out I’m just going to depict where Irma’s center is forecast to be near a major city from model run to model run. The first, of course is Miami. The operational 00Z […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary September 4-5, 2017
Midnight Updates… Dear diary. The 00Z WED operational GFS is just a tad farther west hooking Irma due north out of the Bahamas paralleling Florida’s east coast. Taken verbatim the western eyeball wild be perilously close to shore similar to Matthews track last year. Here is Irma at its closest point to Miami on this […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary September 1-3, 2017
Sunday September 3rd… Dear diary. After seeing a couple more model runs since posting my long diatribe on the chances for Irma making a U.S. landfall yesterday, my forecast has not changed. I’m giving Irma a 80% chance of making a U.S. strike somewhere along the East Coast the following week. Now we can start […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary August 30-31, 2017
Thursday August 31st… Dear diary. Today is the last day of August so it is time to check the NCEI surface records site to see if the “streak” of consecutive months of more daily highs than lows across the U.S. is still alive and well. Data is in through the 29th and what will be […]
Summer Heat and Flood Diary… August 28-29, 2017
Tuesday August 29th… Dear diary. Today is the 12th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall near New Orleans. Ironically, that city is beginning to evacuate people due to Harvey. Due to both Katrina’s and Harvey’s increased power due to climate pollution we are beginning to see what I’ll term the first climate change refugees having to leave their homes and move elsewhere […]
Summer Heat Diary… August 23-27, 2017
Sunday August 27th… Dear diary. About the worst case scenario has happened. Indeed Harvey has become Texas’ Katrina, and like Katrina the most impactful damage is due to flooding. Almost unfathomable amounts of rain, meteorologically, have fallen and will continue to fall in association with Harvey. This picture is from Kevin Seller (@KevinSeller)) taken front […]
Summer Heat Diary… August 21-22, 2017
Tuesday August 22nd… Dear diary. Today will be the last day I will be doing this blog for the summer of 2017, which is really good news for the nation. Usually widespread, dangerous heat persists across some portions of the nation into September, but not so this year. There is a chance, though, that a […]
Summer Heat Diary… August 17-20
Sunday July 20th… Dear diary… It’s T minus one day before the eclipse. The main emphasis for this blog has been forecasting excessive heat along the path of the eclipse. First though, here is a visibility forecast from Michael Palmer because knowing where and how much cloud cover and smoke will affect viewing is really […]
Summer Heat Diary… August 14-16, 2017
Wednesday August 16th, 2017… Dear diary. Heat is slowly building across the South, but conditions are pretty much par for the course for middle August. I’ve noticed a few heat advisories have been posted (in orange) today: Typically this time of the year some of the worst heat can be found across the Southeast Atlantic […]